导语：近期聚丙烯市场无明显利好提振，主流行情维持区间震荡走势。油价上涨，成本端支撑仍存。下游企业恢复有限，对市场支撑偏弱，短期内市场或将维持震荡行情。
周内PP市场价格波动不大，三月份计划检修装置较多，供应有减量预期，市场价格底部支撑仍存。场内库存春节归来后持续维持在偏高水平，去库速率缓慢。下游需求逐步恢复，恢复周期较长且新增订单有限，促使市场情绪逐渐疲软，当下需求明显弱于往年。需求跟进不足，难以为市场带来有力支撑，市场缺乏上涨动力，因此短期内市场主流重心僵持震荡为主。截止14日，华东拉丝主流报盘在7390元/吨，较上周涨10元/吨，涨幅0.14%
种类 | 2024/3/14 | 2024/3/13 | 2024/3/12 | 2024/3/11 | 2024/3/8 | 3/4-3/8平均 |
停车影响量 | 12.97% | 13.21% | 13.46% | 14.20% | 14.26% | 13.91% |
拉丝 | 24.45% | 24.08% | 24.08% | 24.82% | 24.86% | 24.89% |
低熔共聚 | 12.42% | 13.91% | 11.43% | 10.49% | 9.41% | 8.54% |
中熔共聚 | 3.96% | 2.97% | 4.70% | 4.65% | 6.04% | 5.95% |
高熔共聚 | 8.41% | 7.92% | 9.16% | 9.40% | 8.57% | 6.83% |
均聚注塑 | 11.19% | 10.57% | 8.09% | 5.99% | 5.14% | 7.41% |
薄壁注塑 | 5.94% | 6.31% | 6.81% | 6.81% | 6.11% | 5.82% |
中熔纤维 | 3.12% | 5.10% | 5.72% | 7.32% | 5.94% | 4.20% |
高熔纤维 | 4.18% | 3.44% | 2.94% | 2.57% | 3.95% | 5.78% |
BOPP膜料 | 5.59% | 5.10% | 5.10% | 4.36% | 5.19% | 6.71% |
均聚CPP | 0.49% | 0.49% | 0.49% | 0.49% | 0.00% | 0.10% |
二元共聚CPP | 0.92% | 1.41% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 1.42% | 1.22% |
三元共聚CPP | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 1.12% | 1.12% |
透明料 | 3.29% | 2.60% | 3.09% | 4.45% | 5.76% | 4.55% |
无规共聚 | 1.04% | 1.11% | 0.49% | 0.49% | 0.50% | 0.30% |
冷水管 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.12% |
热水管 | 1.73% | 1.24% | 1.98% | 1.98% | 1.49% | 1.39% |
涂覆料 | 0.00% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.15% |
3月份开始，终端市场需求逐渐好转，PP下游制品行业多已进入正轨，整体开工率逐步提升，本周平均开工上涨1.52个百分点至48.94%，较去年同期高1.03个百分点。然终端企业收到新增订单不足、成品库存偏高等影响，对原料采购积极性不强，坚持随采随用原则，未见实质性好转。
综合来看，地缘影响利好国际油价，油价存上涨空间；下周检修装置增加，供应端预计微幅缩量；下游工厂生产逐步进入正常状态，但新增订单表现较弱，导致工厂原料采购热情降温，需求疲软压制市场价格上行。预计三月中下旬聚丙烯市场存上涨预期，但涨幅受限，建议后续继续关注库存及新订单变化。
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